Middle East Monitor ( london )
VOL. 9, NO. 1 , JANUARY 19
Saudi Arabia 2-3
Upstream oil no longer seems to he an option for foreign
coinpanics, but upstream gas could be on the cards,
Bahrain 4
The government claims to have foiled a plot aimed at
deslabihsing the emirate.
UAE 5
The US$6,8bn Lockheed Martin contract saga continues as
a high level military delegation visits the United States.
Qatar 6
Plans for a directly-elected purliameni point both to Sheikh
Hamad's liberalism and political and economic difficulties.
Kuwait 7
The Jeak to the press of a measured economic reform
package has angered tlie government.
Oman 8
A deal with Eiiron India has ensured that buyers for Oman's
entire LNG output have been found,
Iraq 8
Saddam Hussein is using overt US and UK pressure to crack
down on internal dissent.
Lebanon 9
New prime minister Hoss' cabinet will please both the
business community and international financiers.
Jordan 10
The drive to reduce the foreign workforce has become
entwined with Jordan's region^ relations.
Palestine 11
Implementation of the Wye agreement is running into diffi-
culties, not least as a result of increased settler activity.
Israel 12
Pressure is building on Netanyahu from all sides of the
political spectrum, including his own.
Iran 13-14
A debt crisis is likely to be avoided, although pressure on the
balance of payments looks set to continue into 1999.
Turkey 14-16
A viable coalition has yet to be constructed following the
collapse of the Yilmaz administration. Although one of the
front-runners in the polls, the Islamist FP are unlikely to be
included.
Serious reform has been put on hold, but the stability needed
at a time of a heavy debt-servicing schedule will remain.
Middle East Monitor (london )
VOL. 9, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1999
Regional 2
With market Fundamentals remaining weak and unlikely to
improve in the short term, decisive action is needed from
Opec to engineer an oil price recovery,
Saudi Arabia 3-4
The 1999 budget is austere, rellecting substantially reduced
revenues. The government is unwilling to slash spending.
A proposed merger between SAMBA and USB reQects a
growing trend towards banking sector consolidation,
Kuwait 5
Government proposals to open the upstream sector to For-
eign companies are encountering growing opposition. The
ground is being laid for a welfare shake-up,
Oman 6
Spending cuts are the hallmark of the 1999 budget, which
contains a number of measures to raise non-oil revenue.
Qatar 7
High levels of debt and low oil prices are complicating the
short-term outlook.
UAE 8
The effects of the collapse of the Russian economy are
causing a slowdown in economic activity.
Lebanon 9
Salim al-Hoss' new government is setting a brisk pacfe, but
the real economic challenges are yet to come.
Jordan 9
King Hussein has named his eldest son. Prince Abdallah, as
crown prince, instead of expected heir. Prince Hassari,
Israel 10
Yitzhak Mordecai looks likely to enter the premiers^ip race
as the candidate of a new centre party,
Egypt 11-12
The government may not be taking the prospect of a growing
current account deficit seriously enough,
Iran 13-14
Forthcoming municipal elections are not expected to result
in large gains for Khatami, but the acknowledgement of
intelligence ministry responsibility for the killings of promi-
nent liberals is a boost for the president.
Turkey 14-16
The prospects for the formation of a strong coalition after the
elections have been improved by recent developments'
Heavy debt liabilities and the Brazil crisis will keep interest
rates high and exacerbate the economic slowdown.
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR ( LONDON )
VOL. 9 , NO. 3, MARCH 1999
Regional 2
Anumberofregional tclecomscornpaniesaresettobeeither
partially or fully privatised, although the issue of free com-
petition still has to be addressed in much of the region.
Saudi Arabia 3-4
The visit of the US energy secretary in February resulted in
the clarification of projects on offer to foreign energy firms,
Cement companies are assessing their long-term strategies
in the face of an ongoing decline in construction activity.
Kuwait 5
The government is pressing ahead with proposals to invite
foreign oil companies into the upstream sector.
Oman 6
Measures have been introduced to stabilise the MSM and
make trading more effective and transparent.
Qatar 7
Declining supply and a rising demand for power are hasten-
ing the implementation of an independent power project.
UAE 8
A proposed merger between two leading banks has focused
attention on consolidations at the lower end of the sector,
Yemen 9
Tourism and investment have been hit by the recent wave of
kidnappings.
Jordan 10
The international community's commitment to the econpmy
has been confirmed in the wake of King Hussein's death.
Israel 10
Falling inflation and the passing of the budget has encour-
aged the central bank to reduce its base rate-
Syria 11
A cabinet reshuffle and an increase in the pace of economic
liberalisation may result from Assad's re-election.
Egypt 11-12
The privatisation of the big four state banks remains far off.
Iran 12-14
The president's upcoming visit to Europe reflects the sym-
pathy his more moderate politics have won in the West.
Turkey 14-16
The capture of Abdullah Ocalan is a double-edged sword for
the Turkish authorities,
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MIDDLE EAST MONITOR (LONDON )
VOL . 9 , NO. 4, APRIL 1999
Regional 2
Despite strong rhetoric from the GCC over Iran's continuing
occupation of Abu Musa and the Tunbs islands, individual
member states continue to build up bilateral relations,
Saudi Arabia 3-4
The resolution of the dispute over Iran's baseline oil produc-
tion level paved the way for a round of Opec production cuts.
The improvement in oil prices should lead to a relaxation of
recent pressure on the riyaL
Kuwait 5
The IMF has praised Kuwait's financial authorities. The
budget deficit remains a source of concern, however,
Bahrain 6
Among the first tasks to be tackled by the new Emir will be
to kick-start the economic diversification programme,
Qatar 7
Municipal elections witnessed a disappointing turnout. The
effectiveness of the new council has been cast into doubt.
UAE 8
A public company to develop Saadiyat Free Zone looks
likely to be formed this month.
Jordan 9-10
The recent cabinet reshuffle is part of the process by which
the new king is stamping his authority on the Kingdom.
Israel 10-11
DespitetheconvictionofShasleaderAryeh Deri, the Sephardi
party is expected to do well in May's polls.
Lebanon 11
The presentation of the budget has been delayed yet again in
the wake of sharp divisions over its content,
Egypt 12
Private sector equity is playing an increasingly significant
role in the stock market, although privatisation remains the
driving force.
Iran 13-14
Moderates won a convincing victory in the recent local
elections. Hardline conservatives remain on the defensive.
Only a handful of contracts have been completed for up-
stream energy development.
Turkey 15-16
Attempts to postpone next month's elections illustrate the
weaknesses of the Turkish democratic system,
__________________________________
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR (LONDON )
VOI. 9, NO. 7, JULY 1999
Regional 2
Rising demand throughout the region points to an increased
role for the private sector in power generation.
Saudi Arabia 3
The Samba-USB merger remains on course.
UAE 4 _5
The GCC is expected to back the lJAF/s call for a negotiated
settlement to the islands dispute Avith Iran.
The 1999/2000 budget is both optimistic and expansionary,
although much still depends on the oil price.
Kuwait 6_7
The government is keen to ensure that a more moderate
parliament is returned in July.
New foreign investment legislation is aimed primarily at
companies investing in the upstream energy sector.
Oman 7
Concerns remain over the level of commercial bank lending.
Qatar 8
The emirate stands to benefit from the implementation of the
Dolphin Gas Project.
Iraq 9_ 10
Domestic opposition to Saddam is coming mainly from
Shi'ite groups rather than the US sponsored groups.
Oil revenues are expected to rise under Phase Six of the oil-
for-food agreement.
Lebanon 11
The country is in a phase of political and economic uncer-
tainty. An important bank merger has failed.
Israel 12-13
New president Ehud Barak is likely to opt for a broad-based
government of national unity.
Iran 13
Measures to regularise debt repayments and political liber-
alisation have been welcomed by Moodys, although the
country's credit rating is only one notch from default.
Egypt 14
Improved tax collection is expected to offset spending in-
creases contained in the new budget.
Turkey 15-16
Further clarification on key areas of economic policy is still
awaited from the business-like new government.
_________________________
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR (LONDON )
VOL. 9 , NO. 8 , 1999
REGIONAL
The Middle East may be the world's fastest growing tourist
destination, but it has a lot of catching up to do.
Saudi Arabia 4
Despite soaring oil prices, the Kingdom is currently unlikely
to push for higher production quotas.
UAE 5
Mobil Corporation will supply the UAE Offsets Group
with gas for regional distribution under the Dolphin scheme.
Qatar 6
The emirate will, for the time being at least, be a less frequent
visitor to the international markets for project finance.
Kuwait 7
Royals still hold key ministerial portfolios in the new cabinet.
Bahrain 8
Sheikh Hamad's conciliatory gestures to Bahrain's Shi'ite
community may be little more than cosmetic.
Oman 8
ABN Aniro will head an international group advising on the
restructuring of the local electricity sector.
YEMEN 9
President Saleh could remain in power for another 10 years.
Syria 9
The government is adopting a more liberal approach towards
new telecommunications technology.
Israel 10
The new coalition is secure - for the time being.
Jordan 11
Tax hikes and tariffs cuts adhere to the terms of the recent
IMF accord, but telecoms privatisation remains on ice.
Egypt 12
ClariFication is awaited on a gas export deal with Israel
Iran 13-14
Student protests against the Islamist conservative establish-
ment reveal a significant level of public disenchantment and
the potential for further pro-democracy unrest.
Turkey 15-16
The IMF has indicated that a financial assistance package
will only be forthcoming if there is progress on reform in a
number of key economic areas.
_______________________________
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR (LONDON )
VOL. 9, NO. 9 , SEPTEMBER 1999
Saudi Arabia 2-3
Net profits of state-controlled giant Sabic fell in HI, None-
theless, there is still much to be positive about.
Export markets need to be cultivated for the anticipated
expansion in petrochemicals production. Free trade issues
are critical in this regard.
UAE 4
The Saadiyat free zone project has moved closer to fruition
with the launch of the company that is to develop the zone.
Oman 5
The corporatisation of GTO marks the First step towards the
privatisation of the domestic fixed-line telecoms sector.
Bahrain 6
The current emphasis on popular participation in politics is
unlikely to represent a real step towards greater democracy.
Qatar 7
The emirate's first local Treasury bond issue was a successful
move by the government to diversify its borrowing options.
Kuwait 7
Public sector spending is set to increase under a bill passed by
parliament. Fuel prices are set to rise.
Palestine 8
A change of government in Israel promised much for the
Palestinian economy, but has so far failed to deliver.
Israel 9
Shochat and Frenkel's differences of approach to monetary
policy could generate instability in the short term,
Lebanon 10
Measures to reduce debt levels and increase state revenues
are likely to be insufficient to sizeably cut the budget deficit
Jordan 11
The government has called on foreign telecoms companies
and consortia to indicate their interest in a stake in JTC
Egypt 12
Cement company sales are now at an advanced stage.
Iran 13-14
Conservatives have been busy making political capital out of
recent disturbances, but Khatami has been fighting back-
Turkey 15-16
Key legislation has been passed in thecountry's quest foran
IMF financial package. This required political concessions.
___________________________________
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR ( LONDON )
VOL 9 , NO. 10, OCTOBER 1999
Regional 2
An extension of the Opec production cuts will ensure that the
oil price stays around current levels for the remainder of the
year. Increased demand will support the price in 2000,
Saudi Arabia 3-4
The establishment of a supreme economic council points to
faster decision-making on economic policy,
UAE 5
Development of the Borouge petrochemicals project in Abu
Dhabi is picking up pace.
Oman 6
Negotiations have begun with the consortium awarded the
contract to build the second private power plant.
Kuwait 6
Plans for the upstream and downstream oil sectors have been
detailed. Opportunities are available for foreign investors,
Bahrain 6-7
The country's reFineries are being expanded and upgraded.
Qatar 7
The outlook on Rasgas' credit rating has been upped.
Yemen 7
The government is increasing the role of the private sector in
the telecoms and power sectors'
Israel 8
Although a peace dividend is not expected from the Wye-II
accord, economic activity is set to pick up slightly.
Jordan 8-9
Tariffs are being reduced in line with WTO membership
requirements. Taxes are being raised to compensate
Lebanon 9
The budget deficit is coming down, but growth is slow,
Egypt 10-11
The government has introduced tax concessions in order to
boost non-oil exports. A devaluation is not on the cards.
Iran 12-13
Cutting unemployment and inflation are among the key
concerns of the draft five-year plan.
Turkey 14-16
The earthquake has dramatically altered the economic out-
look, and has damaged the ruling coalition,