RISK ANALYSIS
Volume 19, Number 1, February 1999
Opening Editorial 1
Elizabeth L. Anderson
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Response to 'Eyes Closed: Simple, Intuitive, Statistically Sound, and Efficient Methods for Estiriiating
Parameters of Clonal Growth Cancer Models' 3
Rory B. Conolly and David A. Kramer
Response to Comments on 'An Approach for Modeling Noncancer Dose Responses with an Emphasis
on Uncertainty' and 'A Probabilistic Framework for the Reference Dose (Probabilistic RfD)' 7
PaulS. Price, Russ Keenan, Jeff Swartout, and Michael Donf^o/l
ARTICLES
An Alternative Exact Solution of the Two-Stage Clonal Growth Model of Cancer 9
Rudolf T. Hoogenveen, Harvey J. Clewell, Melvin E. Andersen, and Wont Sloh
A Comparison of Regulatory Implications of Traditional and Exact Two-Stage Dose-Response Models 15
Weihsueh A. Chin, David M. llassen^ahl, and Daniel M. Kainmen
Context in the Risk Assessment of Digital Systems 23
Chris Garrett and George Ap.ostolakis
Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models 33
Elizabeth A. Gasman, M. Granger Morgan, and Hadi Dowlatabadi\
SPECIAL COLLECTION: Workshop Proceedings for 'When and How Can You Specify a Probability
Distribution When You Don't Know Much?' Part II
Workshop Overview 43
Yacov Y, Haimes and James H. Lambert
Foundations 47
Elizabeth L. Anderson, Dale Hattis, Nicholas Matalas, Vicki Bier, Stan Kaplan, David Bnrmaster,
Steve Conrad, and Scott Person
Decision-Making with Heterogenesis Sources of Information 69
Donald Richards and William D. Rower
A Survey of Approaches for Assessing and Managing the Risk of Extremes 83
Vicki M. Bier, Yacov Y, Haimes, James H. Lambert, Nicholas C. Matalas, and Rae Zimmerman
What Should be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent 'Biuscs'/'Conservatism' for Risk
Management Decision-Making? 95
Dale Hattis and Elizabeth L. Anderson
Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and
Likelihood-Based Approaches 109
h. Christopher Frey and David F. Burmaster
Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How lo Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the
'State of Knowledge' About Uncertain Inputs 131
F. Owen Hoffman and Stan Kaplan
The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise 135
James K. Hammit and Alexander I. Shlyakhter
________________________________
Risk Analysis
Volume 19, Number. 2, April 1999
CONTENTS
EDITORIAL
The Role of the Society for Risk Analysis in the Emerging Threats to Critical Infrastructures 153
Yacov Y. H dimes
ORIGINAL ARTICLES
Geographical Dimensions and Correlates of Trust 159
Michael R. Greenberg and Bryan Williams
Who Lives Near Coke Plants and Oil Refineries? An Exploration of the Environmental Inequity Hypothesis 171
John D. Graham, Nancy Dean Beaulieu, Dana Sussman, March Sadowiu, and Yi-Ching Li
Combining Probability Distributions from Experts in Risk Analysis 187
Robert T. Clemen and Rober L. Winkler
Public Support for Earthquake Risk Mitigation in Portland, Oregon 205
James Flynn, Paul Slovic, C. K. Mertz, and Cathie Carlisle
Fishing in Urban New Jersey: Ethnicity Affects Information Sources, Perception, and Compliance 217
Joanna Burger, Kerry Kirk Pflugh, Lynette Lurig, Leigh Ann Van Hagen, and Stanley Von Hagen
Fundamentals of Health Risk Assessment. Use, Derivation, Validity and Limitations of Safety Indices 231
Resha M. Put^rath and James D. Wilson
Reliability Analysis for Hazardous Waste Treatment Processes 249
Robert D. Waters and Frank L. Parker
Hormesis: A Highly Generalizable and Reproducible Phenomenon with Important Implications for
Risk Assessment 261
Edward J. Calabrese, Linda A. Baldwin, and Charles D. Holland
Adverse Health Experiences, Environmental Attitudes, and Pesticide Usage Behavior of Farm Operators 283
Erik Lichtenberg and Rae Zimmerman
Estimating Noncancer Uncertainty Factors: Are Ratios of NOAELs Informative? 295
Kevin P. Brand, Lorenz Rhomberg, and John S. Evans
Cancer Risk Estimation of Genotoxic Chemicals Based on Target Dose and a Multiplicative Model 309
Fredrik N. Granafh, Carlos E. Vaca, Lars G. Ehrenberg, and Margareta A. Tomqvist
Announcement 321
Risk Analysis
Volume 19, Number 4, August 1999
CONTENTS
ARTICLES
Exposure to Persistent Organochlorines in Canadian Breast Milk: A Probabilistic Assessment 527
Sara M. Hoover
Evaluation of the Uncertainty in an Oral Reference Dose for Methyirnercury Due to Interindividual Variability
in Pharmacokinetics 547
Harvey J. Clewell, Jeffery M. Gearhart, P. Robinan Gentry, Tammie R. Covington, Cynthia B. VanLandingharn,
Kenny S. Crump, and Annette M. Ship?
Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models for Use in Phase II of the Historical Public Exposures Studies at the
Rocky Flats Plant 559
Arthur S. Rood, George G. Killongh, and John E. Till
Estimating Risk Assessment Exposure Point Concentrations when the Data Are Not Normal or Lognormal 577
Terry W. Schul?. and Susan Griffin
Uncertainty in Comparative Risk Analysis for Threatened Australian Plant Species 585
Mark A. Burgman, David A. Keith, and Terry V. Walshe
Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Lung Cancer Associated with Occupational Exposure to Refractory
Ceramic Fibers 599
Suresh H. Moolgavkar, E. Georg Luebeck, Jay Turim, and Linda Hanna
Statistical Evaluation of Population Data for Calculation of Radioactive Material Transport Accident Risks 613
G. Scott Mills and K. Sieglinde Neuhauser
The Power of Perception: Health Risk Attributed to Air Pollution in an Urban Industrial Neighbourhood 621
Susan J. Elliott, Donald C. Cole, Paul Krueger, Nancy Voorberg, and Sarah Wakefield
Economic Impact of Accelerated Cleanup on Regions Surrounding the U.S. DOE'S Major Nuclear Weapons Sites 635
Michael Greenberg, Laura Solifarc, Michael Frisch, and Karen Lowrie
"How Exposed Is Exposed Enough?" Lay Inferences About Chemical Exposure 649
Donald G. MacGregor, Paul Slavic, and Torbjorn Malmfors
A Model of Consumers' Risk Perceptions Toward Recombinant Bovine Growth Hormone (rbGH): The Impact
of Risk Characteristics 661
Deana Grobe, f^obin Douthilt, and Lydia Zepeda
Simultaneous Analysis of Individual and Aggregate Responses in Psychometric Data Using Multilevel Modeling 675
lan 11. Longford, Claire Morris, Anne-Lise Me Donald, Harvey Goldstein, Jon Rasbash, and Tim O'Riordan
1997 Annual Meeting of the Society for
Risk Analysis: Invited Nugget Papers
Editorial on the Nugget Papers 685
Yacov Y. Haimes
Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment BattleFleld 689
Paul Sl'ovic
Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis 703
Vicki M. Bier
Human Interindividual Variability in Parameters Related to Health Risks 711
Dale Hattis, Prerna Banati, Rob Goble, and David E. Burmaster
The Complementary Roles of Mitigation and Insurance in Managing Catastrophic Risks 727
Paul R. Kleindorfer and Howard Kunreuther
Bayesian Forecasting via Deterministic Model 739
Roman Krzys^tofowicz
A Perspective on Nuclear Waste 751
D. Warner North